Rise of emerging economies slowed down by liquidity squeeze
As intra-Asian trade weakens, Middle East eyes a potential revival
Fragility of paper-based Monetary System: Risks of Deflation, Price Stickiness and Hyper-Inflation are rising. So called Fat-Tail Risks rise, making World Economy more vulnerable
Nationalism & military buildup lead to lower long term growth – boost to industrial production, but erodes trust
Demographics – deteriorating worldwide and leading to lower GDP growth
– China’s Median Age approaching critical 37.
– China, South Korea, Taiwan & Japan aging very fast
– As labor forces implode, growth to slow further and deflation deepen. interest in geopolitical conflicts to boost national cohesion
– Taiwan under pressure to merge with China and S.Korea to merge with N.Korea.
Income inequality – Oligopolistic system replacing market economy
Major social transformation: Urbanization, polarization, center of christianity shifting to the East & South
Global Trade intensity in gradual shift to Indian Ocean
Global Geopolitical Trends
Political polarization and less governable democracies (rise of state capitalism)
Military build-up by emerging nations
Reduced maritime & energy security – Arctic route a game changer
Unresolved patched-up conflicts flare up in Asia
Resurgent nationalism & anti-Semitism – Religious persecution is on the rise
Assertive foreign policies by emerging nations unchecked
Rise/radicalization of Islam & Middle East destabilization
– Emerging powers supplying conventional weapons – Rise of Turkey – Ottoman capture of Jerusalem 500th anniversary
– US shifts military resources to the Pacific & homeland
NATO’s encirclement of Russia
Rise of revolutionary socialism in Latin America
China achieves Nuclear 1st strike capability
Superpowers converge in surveillance, tighter control & oligopols
This site presents the research and analysis of Christian Takushi – a trained Macro Economist specialized on Asia, Emerging Markets and Geopolitics - and other independent researchers & analysts.
He thanks those processing his reports & articles. Also all researchers and analysts contributing ideas, research and critical feedbacks.