Methodology

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Disclosure: We all have filters. Every economist and analyst has a bias or model, shaped to a greater or lesser extent by their background and world-view. Christian Takushi’s geopolitical-economic analysis is shaped, influenced and constrained by the factors stated below. 

In a nutshell, observers say, Christian Takushi has on the one hand broadened Macroeconomic Research to include geopolitical factors; on the other hand, he has also broadened the logical-linear Western view of the world to include the rather circular Oriental way of seeing the world.

Here in more detail what has shaped or constrained his research:

1) Synthesis of geopolitical & macroeconomic analysis:
  • Priority on analysis of interactions & overlaps at aggregate levels
  • Causality in both directions is considered to account for feedback loops
  • Main objective is to provide a clear outlook for the world economy that takes into account key geopolitical forces
2 ) Methodologies used in Macroeconomic analysis:
  • Macroeconomic & Monetary Theory
  • Classical and neoclassical business & credit cycles theory
  • Macroeconomic empirical research
  • Constrained rational expectations and efficiency of markets
  • Time series analysis
  • Proprietary Macroeconomic Efficiency Ratios (MER) and Time Series Aggregation techniques developed in the light of globalization and the rise of emerging economies.
3 ) Methodologies used in Geopolitical Risk Analysis

  • Global Risk Assessment: Priority on overlaps and interaction at macro level
  • GROM methodology: Global Risk Overlap Method (an early warning system)
  • Geographical issues (i.e. river grid, sweet water etc ) and historic evolution of borders
  • Projection of Military Power at sea, land and air theaters
  • Cultural attributes that condition “thinking” and “decision-making” (linear vs circular etc)
  • Social & political trends (i.e. income gap, polarization etc.)
  • Religion and faith-related trends
  • History of bilateral relations and perceptions of past national failures (political & military history)
4 ) Personal background shapes perspective to some extent:
  • Christian has not only broadened Macroeconomic Research to include geopolitical factors, he has also broadened the logical-linear Western view of the world to include the rather circular Oriental way of seeing the world. This is definitely shaped by his “growing up” with simultaneous exposure to Western and Oriental world-views (values) 
  • Child of immigrants from Europe & Asia to Latin America – not caught up in a “East vs West” worldview
  • Personal experience of risks of emerging economies: socialism, hyper-inflation, military coup, civil war, terrorism and  discrimination of minorities
  • Christian faith and respect for people’s spirituality, religion and way-of-thinking
  • Professional financial & investment experience
  • Logical approach to questions shaped by training in math, physics and economics

Note: Macroeconomic research and experience has shown Christian that what some people categorise as evil or good intent is simply the pursuit of logical economic interests. This greatly reduces the need for conspiracy theories to explain events and trends.

> Recommended next page: Geopolitical macroeconomic themes