Late shift among evangelical & unregistered voters could deliver a Trump upset

(A late shift among evangelical and unregistered voters could deliver an upset in favour of Trump) 

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Editorial by Christian Takushi on 4 November 2016

The lead of Clinton has imploded from 6 to only 1.9 points over the past week. More importantly key battleground states are now a perfect tie. Nevertheless, I think no one has shed light upon the biggest factor on Tuesday Nov 8th: the behaviour of the 70 million disenfranchised American citizens that have lost hope in the political system, not voted in many years and therefore not registered to vote. Interestingly in 15 states they can still register even on Election Day. These states comprise the battlegrounds of Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado and Wisconsin. They are all practically “tie”.

What could be a headache for Clinton is that some of these states are part or close to the U.S. Rust Belt, regions that have been hit hard by the exodus of manufacturing firms to China, Mexico etc to benefit from the Free Trade Deals that Obama and Clinton have championed. Since well educated and higher earning Americans tend to vote Democrat, all the above means that many of those that could deliver a surprise on Tuesday are Americans that are struggling financially and that live in the North East of the United States.

Source: UnitedStatesHistoryLSA

Source: UnitedStatesHistoryLSA

My overall political-geopolitical analysis points to three major conclusions and a soft factor for the vote this coming Tuesday:

  1. Big upset is likely: mobilisation of disenfranchised Americans – that want to prevent a US Party to stay in power for more than two terms – should benefit Mr. Trump. I have calculated that some 20% of Americans have not been sampled by analysts and pollsters – they could deliver a surprise. 
  2. So much is at stake in 2016 that I expect the establishment in politics, media, business and security circles will use all means at their disposition to secure a 3rd DNC term. In this legal-technical-logistical game the GOP is at a significant disadvantage. 
  3. Under normal circumstances the formidable Clinton machinery should secure a Clinton victory. The DNC candidate was more disciplined than her GOP contender and also made less mistakes during the electoral process. Her biggest problem is the potential criminal evidence of past breaches, but with top pro-DNC people at the helm of the Justice Department, the worse should be avoided. 

Last but not least, there might be a soft factor consensus is overlooking: It pertains to a group of voters that make up to 28% of the electorate map. Evangelical Christians and Jews were initially seriously opposed to Trump, but lately many are switching to him. African Americans were part of this even before White evangelical leaders joined. A late shift in such a large conservative group of voters could decide these elections. What is behind this late shift? Hard to say, but according to my research a growing number of Christian bible teachers and Jewish rabbis are seeing signs pointing to Mr. Trump as the agent of change needed to shake up a flawed system. On the one hand, he is being compared with Cyrus, King of Persia, who as a gentile was used by God to perform God’s work of redemption for His people. On the other hand, scholars have found the name of Trump coded in the bible. Interestingly in this new Jewish year 777 (5’777), Trump would have his first day in office when he is 70 years, 7 months and 7 days old. Allow me to be critical, we can’t rule out those revelations refer to Donald Trump Junior, who has said may run for president when his children are older. Another pushback to this shift is that it is taking place rather late in the race and this group is not homogenous. We may say this is not a hard fact, but issues that speak to people’s faiths could sway voters in this unusual election year.  

Something you should not overlook ..

  • 70 million eligible voters have not registered to vote
  • A late shift among evangelical and Jewish voters towards Mr. Trump is taking place (28% of electorate)
  • 26% of registered voters have already voted

I recommend that you keep this Battleground Map of Real Clear Politics by your side as you watch and digest the results on Tuesday night. I think it is is very helpful.

Source: RealClearPolitics

Source: RealClearPolitics

 

 

Some thoughts from 19 Oct 2016: Higher Risk of War under Clinton

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Sadly, almost every nation, media and think tank is involved in disinformation. Nevertheless, the real tragedy is that millions of citizens are leisurely consuming systematically edited news (on a propaganda scale) on a daily basis.
There is massive propaganda on the Left and the Right, but since the Left controls 80% to 90% of mainstream media, liberal-progressive institutions control to a large extent what most people read and hear. Often there is no choice. Media is no longer interested in reporting the news, it now wants to shape the way citizens think. Thus, they carefully select what they report and how.
With almost total control over the establishment in politics, big business, entertainment-culture, mainstream media and academics, the liberal globalist forces could soon become a threat to National Security if their monopoly is not curtailed. But no one should put all blame on liberal or conservative institutions alone. People make choices on a daily bases, and it is people that empower institutions and media.
Many people – even professionals and academics – read exactly the same newspapers and watch the same TV channel on a daily basis that conform to their worldview; without much interest to know another aspect or perspective of the facts from another source. Not only that, they enjoy exchanging views with like-minded people only. “Neue Armut” comes to my mind in German, or “New Poverty”. We cannot point a finger on the political elites nor journalists that are shaping our worldview rather than sharing with us “all” the facts and simple truth. US media portrays Russia as “evil”, Russian media portrays the USA as “evil”. They all call ISIS the greatest global threat. Is it really the greatest threat? In my humble analysis, all these three statements are wrong.
At the core of our methodologies is the practical assumption that “all nations and agents advance their interests with all means at their disposal”. Thus, while we analyse how major global trends are overlapping and interacting at Aggregated (Meta) Levels, we also avoid passing judgement based on cultural preconceptions. It is from that vantage point that our holistic Western-Oriental approach can sometimes deliver a different analysis relative to consensus or mainstream media. Our approach encompasses Western ways of thinking and Oriental ways of thinking to analyse a single development. Where Europeans see lines and trends, Oriental people see circles and cycles. The former are driven by “ratio” among other things, the latter by “honour” among other things. The former seek and trust in treaties, the latter take advantage of the former’s sometimes naive trust in treaties. Those believing everything is relative, think Moslems are embracing radical Islam out of poverty or lack of opportunity; Oriental people understand most of them are driven by absolute beliefs and duty. No approach is perfect, my approach seeks to add value with a distinct perspective on geopolitical developments that could affect the real economy, but are being underestimated by consensus.

Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Strategist, Switzerland – 19 October 2016

General Disclaimer: Global Macro and Geopolitical Analysis are highly complex and subject to sudden changes. No analytical method is without certain disadvantages. We may change our 3-pronged outlook within less than 3-6 hours following an event or data release. Global macro analysis can be extremely time-sensitive and the first 24 hours after an event are critical for the response of a government, corporation, pension or portfolio. Only qualified investors should make use of macro reports and treat them as an additional independent perspective. Every investor should weigh different perspectives as well as “opportunities & risks” before making any investment decision. Not all our reports, research and intelligence is published here. What we release here is delayed and adapted. The research & views we post here for public access are aimed at fostering research exchange (to improve our assessment) and helping decision makers adapt their long term & strategic planning to changing realities, not for short term decisions. If you are not a qualified or professional investor, you should get professional advice before taking any investment decisions.

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