Death of Freedom of Speech in Europe may foreshadow its inexorable Strategic Decline

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist – Zurich & Geneva on 21 Dec 2016: On TERROR IN GERMANY.

“Continental Europe is not the USA –

Voter Revolt may not repeat in continental Europe in 2017“

As Germany is rocked by the worse terror attack in decades, this is a summary of strategic thoughts.

For years we have been warning that as a result of catastrophic strategic errors by European leaders over three-four decades, Europe’s Security Deterioration is inexorable. It lays bare that Europe has been led by politicians & administrators and pushed by lobbying corporate managers. None of which had the necessary strategic foresight at geopolitical-macroeconomic meta levels or even the interest therein. Europe is in a geo-strategic trap of her own making.

That Liberal Policy Mix that impoverished the Middle Class was silently supported by established Conservative parties in Europe & USA 

There have been independent minds that raised questions about the downsides of an European Integration Process that lacked a clear mandate by the people. Instead Europe financed and favoured an army of think tanks, universities and so-called expert institutions that shaped the Consensus, one that its exceedingly liberal media gladly propagated. It is healthy for a society to have an open competition of liberal and conservative ideas. I personally follow liberal, conservative and independent thinker – It is enriching. But in Europe, pro-globalization liberal leaders together with big businesses have gone too far; they have practically taken over the state media, most universities, think tanks and business forums. They actively shape public opinion. Just as we saw before and after the BREXIT vote.

In my analysis, the almost complete dominance of Public Opinion by liberal & pro big business political parties is something that backfired and led many voters to accept BREXIT, i.e. reject the EU membership, despite all the risks and threats. Although well-intentioned, such a dominance of mainstream media and financial media by “liberal-globalist-big business interests” was increasingly perceived as totalitarian and intolerant of any criticism. Thus, destroying the very image of “tolerance” they have painstakingly built for themselves over 30 years. Voters saw this confirmed after BREXIT, when political leaders in London, Paris, Berlin and Brussels rushed to say (I paraphrase) “we were not wrong, our main mistake was not to communicate & spread our ideas in a stronger way”. Leading the leading media channels and state media to increase its control of the narrative in the news even more. That has only contributed to the further erosion of public trust in the Press, because they are now fighting against the stated will of the people.

And I am not here bashing liberal forces in Europe alone, many of those pro-Big Business groups are the conservative parties. Conservative Parties let down the Middle Class and many of their constituencies. Yes, In Europe, the mass influx of migrants benefitted both the established Liberal and Conservative Parties: GDP was boosted, while incomes for 90% of workers stagnated. Liberal Parties welcomed their new voters, while Conservative Parties rejoiced in the bigger support & funding by Big Businesses. The latter rejoiced in the cheaper cost of labor induced by migration. Thus, while millions of migrants flooded some European states, thousands of factories and millions of jobs went overseas, established parties and bigger businesses benefitted. And we are talking here about part of the Liberal Policy Mix of the past 40 years.

Europe’s decline cannot be explained by the above alone though. The replacement of Europe’s Judeo-Christian values with Humanism & Political Correctness did the rest, making people ever more “sensitive” and unable to deal with ambiguity or criticism. The EU has de facto removed the Freedom of Speech. Mainstream Media interviews mostly those experts that support their narrative and world view. More interested in shaping or controlling Public Opinion than in informing, European media has added to the confusion and lost credibility. In all fairness also, they are afraid of offending any group of people, and of departing from the liberal script that has served them well. We saw this during BREXIT, Syria, the US Elections etc.

 

The lack of fresh ideas and introspection is exemplified by this: The same experts that explained viewers why BREXIT and TRUMP would never occur, were asked by Mainstream Media to give an outlook for what comes next for Europe. But I will not spare the citizens – the majority in Europe tolerate or consume this.

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A short strategic review

Well-meaning pacifists dismantled Europe’s strategic military, while enthused globalists led to the unrelenting EU’s territorial expansion and the erection of a protectionist Fortress Europe that has weakened its competitiveness, benefitted Big Businesses and impoverished its population. Only the most competitive Nordic countries benefitted as the Euro became endemically weaker than their former currencies. The EU expanded territorially aggressively into the East, encircled Russia and kind of supported a Regime Change in Ukraine. All of which emboldened Russia’s nationalists. Can the EU defend herself against Russia? No.

The EU is today by far the most vulnerable economy in the world: economically, politically, militarily and security wise. Unable to defend herself, the EU says it relies on NATO, which is to mean the USA. But NATO – as a growing number of US military leaders view it – is a highly asymmetric defence block. Trump is simply speaking out what many generals don’t dare to say anymore under the current US Administration. Fast forward to December 2016, EU leaders are boldly lecturing and defying the new incoming US administration, on which Europe’s security depends.

Despite the risks and threats, Britons had the strategic foresight that they needed to exit a sinking ship. 75 years after the Battle for England, Britain decided again to defy the Continental Forces stemmed against it. Maybe, because staying bound & entangled to a bureaucratic EU was a larger leap into the unknown than a messy divorce. Many observers say the wave of populism will sweep from the UK and USA over to Europe. But the use of the demeaning term populism shows they are disconnected from citizens’ reality, and we are skeptical that French & Germans will show that much ruthless introspection. The political landscapes in Europe will be shaken (we think the AfD could get 12-20% of the votes), but at this juncture I doubt it will be enough to set a new course for Europe. As long as these two nations support the established parties that led them into the EU, changes will be shy of radical, and the EU will remain vulnerable and in a slow-motion decline: gasping from one crisis to the other.

France and Germany may be tired of 4 decades of ultra liberal policies, but …

The result of Europe’s four decades of an ultra-liberal Policy Mix and Protectionism has been the destruction of vast segments of Europe’s Middle Class with the subsequent Political Polarisation and growing systemic risks to Political Stability. The explosion in regulation did the rest in advancing giant oligopolies. To make things worse, Europeans are misled to believe that the European Union stands for Democracy and Free Trade. The EU is not only undemocratic and unaccountable, it ushered a period of Protectionism and Managed Trade (so called Free Trade bilateral agreements). Few firms can hire the best of the best, most are restricted to hire EU nationals.

European citizens can’t simply blame their leaders, though. The untold truth is that most European citizens on the continent are too risk-averse to induce a political change – this being specially true of Germany and France. On the one hand, they have become utterly dependent on an ever growing State and State-run pensions & programs. On the other hand, Europeans like the deceptive “protection” the EU promises them. Even if this has only led to Europe’s economic decline.

Europe labels those that want a course correction: “populists”  

To make things worse, Europe’s establishment in politics, media and academia furiously label any critics of their 4 decades-long ultra liberal course as populists, racists and isolationists. In short, any one wanting a course correction is equaled with “uneducated extremists“. Thus, the only mistake EU leaders and media acknowledge is that they have not informed or educated voters enough, leading them to intensify their Information Offensive, which independent observers now perceive as propaganda. They are now making people aware of Fake News, but are not pointing to their own systematic News Bias – which in my opinion is the more subtle and dangerous of the two. Our research shows that while there are extremist minorities at work in Europe, millions of normal citizens wish simply a course correction or normalisation.

Flawed Diagnosis

Even in the aftermath of the tragic terror attacks in France, Belgium and now Germany, European leaders’ diagnosis is flawed

  1. All that Islamist terrorists want is to take away our Freedoms (read freedom of movement etc.)
  2. If we integrate immigrants better, then home-grown terrorism would vanish
  3. Lack of economic opportunities are main driver of Radical of Islam

Sadly, even leading experts share these views. They are not wrong, but they fail to address the main causes. Neither politicians nor so-called experts dare to acknowledge the real source of the radicalisation and threats. In their irrational fear of Islam and their unwillingness to consider religious issues, public leaders can’t address the phenomenon of moderate Moslems turned militants and the role of local communities. As a result, Europe’s economic, military and security deterioration will only gather pace.

Daring to look out into the Future of Europe

While our research points to a slow-motion deterioration of the EU and its eventual implosion, we see the rise of a European Super State or Federation in the long run. What the experts won’t tell you: The best friend of Berlin-Paris-Brussels is ongoing crisis: EU leaders need unending crises to weaken the national states and to induce them to freely hand over their sovereignties in exchange for bail-outs and protection. The migrant crisis is a good example of this strategy of Integration through the back door. This is straightforward geopolitical-macroeconomic reasoning (I reject to work with conspiracy theories).

Just like the United Nations, the European Union is not as unprofessional or incapable as many critics say. They are quite a genius indeed. The EU simply allows crises to rise and simmer, because this helps them achieve their undeclared well-meaning goal: Total Power Concentration, for the good of humanity of course. What I criticise as an independent analyst is that they don’t openly talk about it. nor would they let citizens vote over it. It of course sounds better to say: all we want is Unity and Freedom. With most people following the narrative of mainstream media and others reading only superficial Social Media “bits”, the EU and UN are making good progress towards their respective goals of Power Concentration.

After promoting millions of immigrants to move countries, removing borders, weakening the Rule of Law and allowing big firms to become gigantic Oligopolies, the EU will tell you that individual nation states can’t cope with today’s challenges. Thus, overwhelmed nation states have to come together into Super States, of which the EU is the first one. In a not too distant future, individual nation states may exist only on paper.

Christian Takushi MA UZH, 21 Dec 2016, Zurich-Geneva.

General Disclaimer: Global Macro and Geopolitical Analysis are highly complex and subject to sudden changes. No analytical method is without certain disadvantages. We may change our 3-pronged outlook within less than 3-6 hours following an event or data release. Global macro analysis can be extremely time-sensitive and the first 24 hours after an event are critical for the response of a government, corporation, pension or portfolio. Only qualified investors should make use of macro reports and treat them as an additional independent perspective. Every investor should weigh different perspectives as well as “opportunities & risks” before making any investment decision. Not all our reports, research and intelligence is published here. What we release here is delayed and adapted. The research & views we post here for public access are aimed at fostering research exchange (to improve our assessment) and helping decision makers adapt their long term & strategic planning to changing realities, not for short term decisions. If you are not a qualified or professional investor, you should get professional advice before taking any investment decisions.

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