Agefi Interview on Trump, Emerging Markets & some positive Trump effects
Interview with L’Agefi in Geneva on 23 November 2016.
Christian Affolter interviewed Luc D’Hooge (Fund Manager at Vontobel Asset Management AG) and Christian Takushi (Macro Economist & Strategist at Geopolitical Economics AG).
After having correctly forecast the outcomes of both, BREXIT and US Elections in 2016, Christian Takushi spoke at a Vontobel event to investors and journalists. Christian acknowledges the support of his family, contributors around the world and the grace of a most faithful God that enables him to see beyond the confines of economic and political science.
Please, click this link to read the article:
The following chart depicts how U.S. counties voted on November 8th 2016. This illustration by the University of Michigan in my opinion best describes the growing social-religious divide in the USA. Something state-level results don’t show. You can see here that many suburbs joined rural America to give Trump the victory. It shows also the magnitude of the political earthquake; a “10 on the political Richter Scale”, as I like to put it.
Many are waiting for WW3, but a war of ideologies for political and economic influence using the media is being waged before our eyes already. Current elites are fighting with a very counterproductive strategy: they are labelling all those that are critical of the current Policy Mix (in place since the 1970’s) as uneducated (racist) populists. And guess what, non-politicians are entering politics. Ideologists on the far left are shocked that Trump was elected president, ideologists on the far right are distressed that Trump talks to Obama. Schumer and Romney. And some GOP ideologists are angry that Trump wants to keep key elements of Obama-Care (ACA), but I show respect to President- elect Trump for having the courage to say “I really liked Obama, .. I listened to him for an hour and I liked what he said .. and I will keep certain things of ObamaCare” Those elements make sense, and sensible conservatives are beginning to give some credit to President Obama: he dared to dream big on Affordable Health Care. The first bill was flawed, but it can be improved now.
Our working principles are helping us: one of them says “all nations and groups try to advance their interests with the means at their disposal”. In this hour of victory, mature and wise conservatives are reaching out to bright minds among the Democrats and liberal circles. And that is a smart move; they will need their council and help to get the job done.
General Disclaimer: Global Macro and Geopolitical Analysis are highly complex and subject to sudden changes. No analytical method is without certain disadvantages. We may change our 3-pronged outlook within less than 3-6 hours following an event or data release. Global macro analysis can be extremely time-sensitive and the first 24 hours after an event are critical for the response of a government, corporation, pension or portfolio. Only qualified investors should make use of macro reports and treat them as an additional independent perspective. Every investor should weigh different perspectives as well as “opportunities & risks” before making any investment decision. Not all our reports, research and intelligence is published here. What we release here is delayed and adapted. The research & views we post here for public access are aimed at fostering research exchange (to improve our assessment) and helping decision makers adapt their long term & strategic planning to changing realities, not for short term decisions. If you are not a qualified or professional investor, you should get professional advice before taking any investment decisions.