Category Archive for "Convergence"

Voter Revolt in the EU is likely to fail – The EU could shift further to a liberal-left course in 2018

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist – Zurich & Geneva on 14 March 2017: Elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany (this is an adapted version of the original) The EU could shift further to a liberal-left course in 2018 “Continental Europe is not the USA“ Tomorrow Dutch voters elect the new parliament…

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Death of Freedom of Speech in Europe may foreshadow its inexorable Strategic Decline

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist – Zurich & Geneva on 21 Dec 2016: On TERROR IN GERMANY. “Continental Europe is not the USA – Voter Revolt may not repeat in continental Europe in 2017“ As Germany is rocked by the worse terror attack in decades, this is a summary of…

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Agefi Interview on Trump, Emerging Markets & some positive Trump effects

Interview with L’Agefi in Geneva on 23 November 2016. Christian Affolter interviewed Luc D’Hooge (Fund Manager at Vontobel Asset Management AG) and Christian Takushi (Macro Economist & Strategist at Geopolitical Economics AG). After having correctly forecast the outcomes of both, BREXIT and US Elections in 2016, Christian Takushi spoke at…

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Video: Possible Surprise in US Elections: unusual & late shift in favor of Trump among Evangelicals

Title of Message: “Possible Double Surprise at US Presidential Elections 2016″: A Trump victory and one by a bigger margin than few would expect”. Takushi points to an unusual late convergence of economic and religious factors that could favor Mr. Trump in the Rust Belt, South and Mid West. 15…

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Special Geopolitical Macro Update: Possible US Election surprise, Moral decline, US-Russia escalation & Syria-Iraq war

By Christian Takushi, Switzerland – 4 November 2016 Dear reader The 3-4 weeks leading to the US Elections are as expected a tense “radio silence”, with many decision makers in waiting mode. Nevertheless, some developments deserve our attention. Their timing and inter-connection call for close monitoring. Interestingly, some of these developments…

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Late shift among evangelical & unregistered voters could deliver a Trump upset

(A late shift among evangelical and unregistered voters could deliver an upset in favour of Trump)  Editorial by Christian Takushi on 4 November 2016 The lead of Clinton has imploded from 6 to only 1.9 points over the past week. More importantly key battleground states are now a perfect tie….

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Quarterly Global Geopolitical Macro Outlook: Brexit weighs on US elections, Germany, Turkey & US Supreme Court

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Switzerland, 17 Sept 2016, released to public on 19 Oct 2016. Introduction: Three countries should be on our radar this Q4: The USA, Germany and Turkey. Although no major event is due in Germany, global events are influencing the political process there in a way…

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Geopolitical Macro Update – 9 Sept 2016: G20 & Turkey, USA, Germany and UK

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Switzerland, 9 September 2016 As usual we focus on recent developments that are being underestimated by consensus. Most likely due to consensus excessive focus on the FED and surprising economic data, but also due to one-sided coverage by the media. I will also touch on…

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Editorial Comment on Military Coup in Turkey: Western misperception

By Christian Takushi, Switzerland – 16 July 2016. Religion is increasingly affecting and driving politics & the economy in the Middle East A band of secular generals & intellectuals wanted to defend the separation of state and religion. They wanted to bring down Mr. Erdogan to prevent a further radicalisation…

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EDITORIAL: British brave the threats; Queen Elizabeth II, Expect a Yes to “nuclear deterrence” on July 18th, Why experts missed Brexit

EDITORIAL: British people brave the threats. By Christian Takushi MA UZH, 30 June 2016 – Switzerland 1) Introduction As we warned in Fall 2015 and more recently on 7 Jan 2016 (editorial) and 17 June 2016 (outlook), political & financial experts grossly underestimated the risk of BREXIT (Britain exiting the EU)….

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